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Dr. Kristian Gustafson, intelligence and security scholar at Brunel University and a former military professional, joins us on Modcast for a sharp analysis of the Iran war."It feels like almost two wars are going on, an American one and an Israeli one. The Israeli one we understand better; the American one we don't understand particularly well. What are its objectives, and how do the actions so far actually serve them?”Dr. Gustafson views the war in Iran as an extension of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. He is impressed by Israel's intelligence-driven targeting capabilities, probably world-leading in his words, but also reminds us of an uncomfortable truth: outstanding intelligence alone does not win wars.On the American side, he identifies parallels to the Iraq War, and warns, amid unclear American strategy, of a familiar danger: the politicization of intelligence assessments.Finally, he analyzes how NATO interprets the U.S.–Israel alliance driving this war, and what does it mean for the global alliance system? 

Foreign influence and intervention have emerged as critical strategic challenges in recent years, ranging from interference in democratic processes to shaping policy, security, economic affairs, and academia. A notable milestone in raising awareness of this threat was Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.This publication is a joint project of the Institute for the Research of theMethodology of Intelligence (IRMI) and the Institute for National SecurityStudies (INSS), initiated with the support of the Ministry of Intelligence.The contributors include academic researchers, current and former intelligence practitioners, and independent researchers who are actively engaged in countering foreign influence in Israel.The aim of this report is to conduct a systematic analysis of a significant threat to Israel, which became particularly evident during the war in Gaza.Various actors seek to weaken the state of Israel and Israeli society ,including by undermining social cohesion and amplifying narratives that serve foreign interests while masquerading as authentic Israeli discourse.This report focuses specifically on the role of intelligence in addressing this challenge.

The Institute for the Research of the Methodology of Intelligence thanks Rabbi Ariel Yeshurun from Miami who volunteered to translate this article. .The article focuses on how intelligence work methods, underlying assumptions,and core practices either encourage or constrain innovation

Intelligence organizations around the world are undergoing significant changes, shifting in accordance with the sea changes in the environment in which they operate, and one of the most important changes concerns the unprecedented openness to the civilian shpere. However, this paradigmatic change lacks a systematic and holistic presence in professional and academic writing on intelligence.

The objective of this article is to propose an integrative conceptual framework for what can be called "openintelligence." It has five interactive components: intelligence dealing with issues of national security that concerns global civilian threats which go beyond the security-military sphere (such as climate change and public health); intelligence-civilian partnerships in collection activities, analysis and operations conducted in the digital realm, necessitated by the OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) revolution (prominently displayed in the war in Ukraine); need for intelligence organizations to embed themselves within the civilian STEM-ecosystem in order to preserve technological superiority; obligation to share information and intelligence assessments with the public in an era of fake news and truth decay; and movement towardshuman-capital strategies more symbiotic with the public sector and the private labor market.

The process of opening up to the civilian sphere must continue and deepen to provide a vital growth engine for intelligence organizations, but to succeed it must cope with its inherent challenges: developing a more sophisticated secrecy culture and moving the needle in sources and methods risk management; internalizing the loss of monopoly on intelligence and the need to turn to external partnerships to maintainrelevance; managing possible tension with the political decision makers, who are liable to view intelligence sharing with the public as a violation of their monopoly on the consumption of intelligence information;clarifying ethical and democratic dilemmas arising from relations with the civilian sphere; and coping with the possible reservations of civilian parties regarding  working with the intelligence organizations.

Dr. Shay Hershkovitz is arguing that despite  the recognition of the profound changes taking place around them, today's intelligence institutions are still built and operate in the spirit of Cold War conceptions. In a sense, intelligence organizations have not internalized the complexity that characterizes the present time – a complexity which requires abandoning the dichotomous (within and outside) perception of the intelligence establishment, as well as the understanding of the intelligence enterprise and government bodies as having a monopoly on knowledge; concepts that have become obsolete in an age of decentralization, networking and increasing prosperity.


In his view, although some doubt the ability of intelligence organizations to transform and adapt themselves to the challenges of the future, there is no doubt that they must do so in this era in which speed and relevance will determine who prevails.

Itai Brun's book deals with intelligence analysis – the process in which knowledge about the enemy and the environment is developed to serve decision-making in the fields of policy design, operational planning and force build up. Among other things, the book relates to the nature of intelligence analysis, the analysis methodology, the role of intelligence analysis in combat, and the impact of the information revolution on the analysis practice.Having known him for many years, both as a commander and an intelligence officer, Itai's skill at describing and explaining complex reality has always stood out. In his book, he provides up-to-date insight into the methodology and philosophy of intelligence analysis, an area hardly broached let alone written about. Brun presents his own experience and the best practices of the entire Israeli intelligence community, and he does so, as always, in a clear and concise manner.Major General Herzi HaleviChief of Defense IntelligenceBrigadier General (Ret.) Itai Brun served as the head of Israel Defense Intelligence (IDI) Analysis Division from June 2011 to January 2015. Prior to this position, he was the head of the Analysis Department in the Israeli Air Force Intelligence and the first director of the IDF's DADO Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies.

 the main approach Brun and Shwartz Altshuler present as to how to properly use GPT and similar Generative AI products is that of a "seat at the table". In this approach, it is not intended that the GPT replace the head of IDI or the intelligence analysts. The simulations we conducted prove that GPT has a different form of analysis and unique qualities that can help intelligence personnel and decision makers think about the future. It is this difference that, in our view, constitutes the GPT's "entrance ticket" to the discussions that take place around the table of the head of the IDI and other tables in the intelligence community. The exact characteristics of this seat at the table should be defined in further studies.

The importance of the cognitive campaign is recognized more and more in the State of Israel. However, steps taken so far display a lack of consistency and systematic activity, and range from improvisation stemming from necessity to ad hoc planning in individual cases. In a reality where the decisive importance of the issue is proven time and time again, there should be a national public diplomacy and cognition directorate within the Prime Minister's Office that would operate under the direction of the Prime Minister and coordinate all public diplomacy and cognitive war efforts. In this way, the cognitive campaign, like any other campaign, would be conducted in a coherent manner based on the policy dictated and approved by the political leadership, and include every public servant and soldier. Institutionalizing the governmental effort would also enable individual volunteers or organizations in Israel and abroad to receive reliable information and messages, and in turn contribute to the national cognitive effort. Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Ya'alon

We are pleased to offer you, our readers, the third issue of the journal Intelligence – in Theory and in Practice. It is the fruit of many efforts of the authors, who agreed to invest their time and energy in order to enhance the community's knowledge in the big-data field.

Before you is the second issue of the methodological journal Intelligence in Theory and in Practice. The thread connecting the articles in this issue is the need for intelligence personnel to adapt their methods to the increasing pace and intensity of the changes both in the strategic environment and in the operative and technological environment.The inherent tension between the need for change and the adherence to familiar Practices has provided grist for a wide range of research and writing, and not only in the intelligence context. In this issue we seek to focus the discussion on the intelligence aspects of the subject: changes in the adversary and in the environment, and how these add up to a basic change in the intelligence community in general, in intelligence organizations that monitor the environment in particular, in the patterns of relations between the different intelligence organizations, and in the new and evolving intelligence professions.

The first issue is devoted to the topic of "Jointness in Intelligence.” As an umbrella institution for all the organizations that form the Israeli intelligence community, it is natural for ITIC to give this issue priority. That, however, is not the only reason to do so. The changes in the nature of the intelligence challenges, and in the attributes of the environment in which Western intelligence operates, make it all the more essential and urgent to study this topic.